Obama Primary Voting

Barack's going to get the Democratic nod, I think. He's statistically tied with Hillary in Iowa and trending strongly upward there, whereas Edwards and Clinton both have been stagnant in the polls for quite some time. Obama's supporters are more likely to caucus than those of the other candidates, as well.

Then, you turn to New Hampshire and see the same thing occurring in the Granite State, with Obama starting to trend strongly upwards there, as well. Judging by the Pollster data alone, it appears that his support stems directly from Clinton dissidents (and Gore supporters, many of whom I assume initially supported Hillary):

The GOP version of Barack is, of course, Huckabee, who is going to lock up the GOP nomination fairly soon. His polling patterns directly duplicate Obama's, except those patterns are even more dramatic in the case of the former Arkansas governor.

The race then turns to Huckabee v. Obama; Obama carries (and strongly) the female vote, along with the typical Democratic states, and he makes substantial inroads into the swing states. Regarding voting demographics: I'm guessing he'll carry everything up to and including 40 and 50 year olds. The under 30 crowd is going to be a complete wash for him, and I think that group will be fairly mobilized. Obama's going to be declared President in 2008, barring any catastrophic revelations. I'm now on the record, let's see if I call it as accurately as the 2004 election.